As prices are going down and capacity is going up across the globe, the solar industry is expecting a huge growth in the next five years. If we consider the experts’ view, then the world is likely to have over 1 trillion watts of installed solar PV capacity by 2023. This estimated amount is not even enough to serve more than one-third of America's electricity consumption.
Earlier in 2014, it was forecasted that by 2022, 871 gigawatts solar power would be generated. Global deployment of photovoltaics for electricity generation, which is growing faster than previously expected, is set to reach the terawatt level within just five years. This is indeed a big achievement for the solar industry globally. A recent seminar organized in Golden, Colorado of PV specialists from the US National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar came out with this conclusion.
analysts at Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) have revealed that cumulative PV deployments had reached around 400 GW by the end of last year. It was only two years ago, when the total stood at 230 GW. It was the last major capacity projection one year ago when the GTM Research team forecasted 871 gigawatts by 2022. According to the latest projections, the growth rate will be higher than expected growth for every year after 2018.
Nearly 20 percent of the total global market will make up through China, Japan and India by 2023. even with both the markets declining this year, China and Japan will make up half of the annual installations over two years. However, the long tail of marketers is important. by 2023, about 28 percent of the market will be dominated by North America and Europe.from 3 percent of capacity today, the Middle East will jump to 9 percent, while Latin America will make up 7 percent of global installations.
The reason behind the upward adjustment in capacity is simple; prices are ultra-competitive and falling. Many countries are now putting in place auction systems, which is subsidy-free and large-scale solar PV is winning a lot of bids. However, cost drops haven't kept pace with recent price drops; WoodMac expects costs to catch up. Analysts at WoodMac found a median price of 2 cents per kilowatt-hour by 2022, simulated 625 auction-tariff scenarios.
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